Including spatial distribution in a data‐driven rainfall‐runoff model to improve reservoir inflow forecasting in Taiwan          下载免费PDF全文

Meng‐Jung Tsai  Robert J. Abrahart  Nick J. Mount  Fi‐John Chang 《水文研究》2014,28(3):1055-1070

Multi‐step ahead inflow forecasting has a critical role to play in reservoir operation and management in Taiwan during typhoons as statutory legislation requires a minimum of 3‐h warning to be issued before any reservoir releases are made. However, the complex spatial and temporal heterogeneity of typhoon rainfall, coupled with a remote and mountainous physiographic context, makes the development of real‐time rainfall‐runoff models that can accurately predict reservoir inflow several hours ahead of time challenging. Consequently, there is an urgent, operational requirement for models that can enhance reservoir inflow prediction at forecast horizons of more than 3 h. In this paper, we develop a novel semi‐distributed, data‐driven, rainfall‐runoff model for the Shihmen catchment, north Taiwan. A suite of Adaptive Network‐based Fuzzy Inference System solutions is created using various combinations of autoregressive, spatially lumped radar and point‐based rain gauge predictors. Different levels of spatially aggregated radar‐derived rainfall data are used to generate 4, 8 and 12 sub‐catchment input drivers. In general, the semi‐distributed radar rainfall models outperform their less complex counterparts in predictions of reservoir inflow at lead times greater than 3 h. Performance is found to be optimal when spatial aggregation is restricted to four sub‐catchments, with up to 30% improvements in the performance over lumped and point‐based models being evident at 5‐h lead times. The potential benefits of applying semi‐distributed, data‐driven models in reservoir inflow modelling specifically, and hydrological modelling more generally, are thus demonstrated. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

机载激光雷达单机检校方案研究   总被引：1，自引：1，他引：0  

刘凯华  张建霞  左建章 《测绘科学》2010,35(6):62-64,69

针对目前LiDAR的精度标定环节,本文分析了激光雷达的测距原理和影响测距精度的因素后,提出了对测距精度影响较大的激光器二极管电流强度、扫描半角、扫描频率、扫描距离以及灰度值的自身误差检测方法,展示了交通标志的特殊点云图像,并以此组织了完整的检校工作,验证了该检校方法的可行性,提出了可供参考的检测注意事项,为在测量结果中加入误差校正提供了理论依据。  相似文献   

GPS在机载雷达测速精度鉴定中的应用     

王云河  王存良 《全球定位系统》2010,35(2):5-8

论述了利用GPS来鉴定机载雷达的测速精度，推导了雷达对目标径向的速度基准值计算公式及其精度计算公式，并计算了该速度基准值及其精度，结果表明：能够满足速度基准值精度要求。强调了在做测速精度鉴定方案时，需要计算在被鉴定速度方向上的速度基准值精度是否满足要求。  相似文献   

利用控制点三维信息标定机载双天线干涉SAR参数   总被引：1，自引：1，他引：0  

张薇  向茂生  吴一戎 《测绘学报》2010,39(4):370-377

采用基于敏感度方程的方法,研究基于三维重建模型下的机载双天线干涉SAR系统的干涉参数定标问题.干涉参数定标是生成高精度数字高程模型的关键.本文修正了Madsen提出的干涉SAR三维重建的视向量正交分解算法,采用电磁波波前的球面波模型,加入了载机的姿态旋转,构建一种新的干涉SAR三维重建模型.利用各干涉参数对控制点三维信息的不同的敏感性,提出分别利用地面控制点三维信息,对各干涉参数进行定标.并利用中国科学院电子学研究所自主设计、研制的机载干涉SAR系统数据,进行定标处理实验验证.  相似文献   

轨道线性拟合在星载InSAR基线估计中的应用分析          下载免费PDF全文

郑浩  秦显平 《海洋测绘》2010,30(1):32-34

轨道线性拟合法具有模型严密、求解精度高等优点。对轨道线性拟合在星载InSAR基线估计中的可行性进行了分析,证明轨道线性拟合可以满足星载InSAR干涉测量的精度要求。  相似文献   

Ensemble rainfall forecasting with numerical weather prediction and radar‐based nowcasting models     

Shan He  Srivatsan V. Raghavan  Ngoc Son Nguyen  Shie‐Yui Liong 《水文研究》2013,27(11):1560-1571

The overall objective of this study is to improve the forecasting accuracy of the precipitation in the Singapore region by means of both rainfall forecasting and nowcasting. Numerical Weather Predication (NWP) and radar‐based rainfall nowcasting are two important sources for quantitative precipitation forecast. In this paper, an attempt to combine rainfall prediction from a high‐resolution mesoscale weather model and a radar‐based rainfall model was performed. Two rainfall forecasting methods were selected and examined: (i) the weather research and forecasting model (WRF); and (ii) a translation model (TM). The WRF model, at a high spatial resolution, was run over the domain of interest using the Global Forecast System data as initializing fields. Some heavy rainfall events were selected from data record and used to test the forecast capability of WRF and TM. Results obtained from TM and WRF were then combined together to form an ensemble rainfall forecasting model, by assigning weights of 0.7 and 0.3 weights to TM and WRF, respectively. This paper presented results from WRF and TM, and the resulting ensemble rainfall forecasting; comparisons with station data were conducted as well. It was shown that results from WRF are very useful as advisory of anticipated heavy rainfall events, whereas those from TM, which used information of rain cells already appearing on the radar screen, were more accurate for rainfall nowcasting as expected. The ensemble rainfall forecasting compares reasonably well with the station observation data. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

一次长生命史超级单体降雹演化机制及双偏振雷达回波分析     

高丽  潘佳文  蒋璐璐  翁之梅 《气象》2021,(2):170-182

2019年3月21日一次长生命史超级单体导致浙江省中部多个县(市)降雹,为了研究超级单体得以长时间维持的环境背景及其云物理特征,利用常规资料以及宁波S波段双偏振雷达数据,结合粒子相态识别算法,对此次过程的演变进行了分析。结果表明:高空槽前、850 hPa切变线附近和地面冷锋为超级单体提供了合适的环流背景;风暴传播区域对流有效位能的增加、风暴承载层的平均风向与风暴移动方向相近、风速大、对流风暴沿地面假相当位温梯度大值区向东传播及沿海强垂直风切变,导致中气旋旋转速度和旋转厚度的增加,这些都是对流风暴长时间维持的原因。通过此次降雹单体风暴结构分析发现:整个生命史对流发展非常旺盛,最大反射率维持在60 dBz以上,风暴顶维持在8 km以上,风暴质心高度出现的三次明显波动,对应三次降雹过程。垂直累积液态含水量(VIL)跃增量虽不及传统指标,但结合垂直累积液态含水量密度(VILD)、VIL最大值及最大反射率因子大值区,对冰雹业务预报有指示作用。通过降雹单体双偏振特征分析发现:冰雹下落过程中的翻滚现象,导致差分反射率(Z_dr)值接近0 dB,水平和垂直偏振波差异导致三体散射特征(TBSS)根部Z_dr大值区的出现;冰雹降落融化产生的外包水膜现象,使其Z_dr值增大,相关系数(CC)值减小;通过偏振参数Z_dr和CC特征,有助于识别高空大冰雹;超级单体的有界弱回波区(BWER)附近的Z_dr柱不仅可指示上升运动,同时对降雹单体不同的成长阶段具有指示作用。  相似文献   

复杂地形下C波段雷达定量降水估计算法   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

李巧  戚友存  朱自伟  杨毅  闵锦忠  师春香  张哲  李东欢  王楠  胡启元 《气象学报》2021,79(4):689-702

C波段雷达定量降水估计（QPE）精度受到很多因素的影响,主要包括:（1）雷达标定,（2）非气象回波的干扰,（3）降水物垂直空间变化,（4）地形或地物的严重遮挡,（5）Z-R关系的代表性,（6）雷达拼图的质量,（7）雷达观测回波衰减等。文中雷达定量降水估计算法基于陕西省C波段天气雷达展开,从雷达探测数据质量控制、地形遮挡、Z-R关系和雷达拼图等方面提高C波段天气雷达定量降水估计的精度,产生降水类型产品和1 h定量降水估计产品,产品空间分辨率为0.01°×0.01°,时间分辨率为6 min。通过对7次降水过程进行评估,结果表明:基于混合仰角反射率因子处理模块和降水类型分类模块进行雷达定量降水估计,得到的结果与地面雨量站观测降水接近,1 h累计降水量的统计评分指标均方根误差稳定在3 mm以下,相对误差稳定在50%左右,相对偏差保持在?30%以内,雷达定量降水估计产品的离散度和绝对偏差都较低,表明该算法得到的雷达定量降水估计稳定可靠。   相似文献